What Is PKG Fair Value?
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) has a composite fair value estimate of $300.46 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $231.65, suggesting the stock is undervalued by 29.7%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Undervalued4 of 4 models$300.46
vs. current price of $231.65(+29.7%)
How Is PKG Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what PKG is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
PKG Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$312.44
+34.9%Undervalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$646.44
+179.1%Undervalued
Inputs used
PKG Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$111.24
-52.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$188.11
-18.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $231.65 is 34.9% below this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $680.5M | $630.7M |
| Year 2 | $803.0M | $689.8M |
| Year 3 | $947.6M | $754.4M |
| Year 4 | $1.12B | $825.0M |
| Year 5 | $1.32B | $902.3M |
| Year 6 | $1.56B | $986.9M |
| Year 7 | $1.84B | $1.08B |
| Year 8 | $2.17B | $1.18B |
| Year 9 | $2.56B | $1.29B |
| Year 10 | $3.02B | $1.41B |
| Terminal Value | $57.34B | $26.81B |
What Are PKG's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$231.65
EPS (TTM)
$7.69
Forward P/E
17.1
Profit Margin
7.3%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
433M
EBITDA
2B
Book Value
$52.64
Total Debt
4.4B
What Do Analysts Say About PKG?
Low
$167.00
Average
$261.10
High
$320.00
Upside
+12.7%
PKG Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of PKG?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), PKG's estimated fair value is $300.46. The stock is currently trading at $231.65, which makes it undervalued by our analysis.
How is PKG's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is PKG overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, PKG is undervalued. The current price of $231.65 is 29.7% below our estimated fair value of $300.46.
What do Wall Street analysts say about PKG?
10 analysts cover Packaging Corporation of America with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $261.10, ranging from $167.00 to $320.00. This implies 12.7% upside from the current price.