What Is PKG Fair Value?
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) has a composite fair value estimate of $187.92 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $227.86, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 17.5%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$187.92
vs. current price of $227.86(-17.5%)
How Is PKG Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what PKG is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
PKG Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$199.86
-12.3%Fair Value
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$284.79
+25.0%Undervalued
Inputs used
PKG Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$110.42
-51.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$141.19
-38.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $227.86 is 12.3% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $654.5M | $605.5M |
| Year 2 | $742.9M | $635.7M |
| Year 3 | $843.2M | $667.4M |
| Year 4 | $957.0M | $700.7M |
| Year 5 | $1.09B | $735.7M |
| Year 6 | $1.23B | $772.4M |
| Year 7 | $1.40B | $810.9M |
| Year 8 | $1.59B | $851.4M |
| Year 9 | $1.80B | $893.9M |
| Year 10 | $2.05B | $938.5M |
| Terminal Value | $37.41B | $17.16B |
What Are PKG's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$227.86
EPS (TTM)
$8.32
Forward P/E
18.0
Profit Margin
8.0%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
391.4M
EBITDA
2B
Book Value
$51.81
Total Debt
4.4B
What Do Analysts Say About PKG?
Low
$167.00
Average
$246.20
High
$272.00
Upside
+8.0%
PKG Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of PKG?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), PKG's estimated fair value is $187.92. The stock is currently trading at $227.86, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is PKG's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is PKG overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, PKG is overvalued. The current price of $227.86 is 17.5% above our estimated fair value of $187.92.
What do Wall Street analysts say about PKG?
10 analysts cover Packaging Corporation of America with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $246.20, ranging from $167.00 to $272.00. This implies 8.0% upside from the current price.