What Is UNP Fair Value?
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 31, 2026, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) has a composite fair value estimate of $164.90 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $304.00, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 45.8%.
Data as of October 31, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$164.90
vs. current price of $304.00(-45.8%)
How Is UNP Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what UNP is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
UNP Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$195.86
-35.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$143.11
-52.9%Overvalued
Inputs used
UNP Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$104.78
-65.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$146.38
-51.8%Overvalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $304.00 is 35.6% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.95B | $5.46B |
| Year 2 | $6.61B | $5.57B |
| Year 3 | $7.34B | $5.69B |
| Year 4 | $8.16B | $5.80B |
| Year 5 | $9.07B | $5.92B |
| Year 6 | $10.08B | $6.04B |
| Year 7 | $11.20B | $6.17B |
| Year 8 | $12.44B | $6.29B |
| Year 9 | $13.82B | $6.42B |
| Year 10 | $15.36B | $6.55B |
| Terminal Value | $246.17B | $104.99B |
What Are UNP's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$304.00
EPS (TTM)
$12.82
Forward P/E
21.1
Profit Margin
28.9%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
5.1B
EBITDA
13.3B
Book Value
$37.05
Total Debt
31.1B
What Do Analysts Say About UNP?
Low
$245.00
Average
$331.42
High
$375.00
Upside
+9.0%
UNP Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of UNP?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), UNP's estimated fair value is $164.90. The stock is currently trading at $304.00, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is UNP's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is UNP overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, UNP is overvalued. The current price of $304.00 is 45.8% above our estimated fair value of $164.90.
What do Wall Street analysts say about UNP?
24 analysts cover Union Pacific Corporation with a consensus rating of "Buy." The average price target is $331.42, ranging from $245.00 to $375.00. This implies 9.0% upside from the current price.