What Is VST Fair Value?
Vistra Corp. (VST) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of August 29, 2026, Vistra Corp. (VST) has a composite fair value estimate of $72.84 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $137.09, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 46.9%.
Data as of August 29, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$72.84
vs. current price of $137.09(-46.9%)
How Is VST Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what VST is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
VST Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$23.81
-82.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$22.68
-83.5%Overvalued
Inputs used
VST Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$43.93
-68.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$194.60
+42.0%Undervalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $137.09 is 82.6% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $678.5M | $618.0M |
| Year 2 | $816.2M | $677.2M |
| Year 3 | $981.9M | $742.1M |
| Year 4 | $1.18B | $813.2M |
| Year 5 | $1.42B | $891.1M |
| Year 6 | $1.71B | $976.5M |
| Year 7 | $2.06B | $1.07B |
| Year 8 | $2.47B | $1.17B |
| Year 9 | $2.98B | $1.28B |
| Year 10 | $3.58B | $1.41B |
| Terminal Value | $50.40B | $19.82B |
What Are VST's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$137.09
EPS (TTM)
$5.81
Forward P/E
13.2
Profit Margin
11.6%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
37.1M
EBITDA
6.6B
Book Value
$8.95
Total Debt
20.5B
What Do Analysts Say About VST?
Low
$106.00
Average
$217.42
High
$305.00
Upside
+58.6%
VST Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of VST?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), VST's estimated fair value is $72.84. The stock is currently trading at $137.09, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is VST's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is VST overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, VST is overvalued. The current price of $137.09 is 46.9% above our estimated fair value of $72.84.
What do Wall Street analysts say about VST?
19 analysts cover Vistra Corp. with a consensus rating of "Strong Buy." The average price target is $217.42, ranging from $106.00 to $305.00. This implies 58.6% upside from the current price.