What Is VST Fair Value?
Vistra Corp. (VST) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of July 16, 2026, Vistra Corp. (VST) has a composite fair value estimate of $105.01 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $160.23, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 34.5%.
Data as of July 16, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$105.01
vs. current price of $160.23(-34.5%)
How Is VST Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what VST is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
VST Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$50.96
-68.2%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$23.38
-85.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
VST Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$45.46
-71.6%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$276.62
+72.6%Undervalued
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $160.23 is 68.2% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $705.0M | $641.1M |
| Year 2 | $881.3M | $728.8M |
| Year 3 | $1.10B | $828.5M |
| Year 4 | $1.38B | $941.8M |
| Year 5 | $1.72B | $1.07B |
| Year 6 | $2.15B | $1.22B |
| Year 7 | $2.69B | $1.38B |
| Year 8 | $3.36B | $1.57B |
| Year 9 | $4.20B | $1.79B |
| Year 10 | $5.25B | $2.03B |
| Terminal Value | $72.16B | $27.92B |
What Are VST's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$160.23
EPS (TTM)
$6.04
Forward P/E
14.8
Profit Margin
11.5%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
-164.1M
EBITDA
6.8B
Book Value
$9.23
Total Debt
20.6B
What Do Analysts Say About VST?
Low
$99.00
Average
$223.17
High
$320.00
Upside
+39.3%
VST Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of VST?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), VST's estimated fair value is $105.01. The stock is currently trading at $160.23, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is VST's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is VST overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, VST is overvalued. The current price of $160.23 is 34.5% above our estimated fair value of $105.01.
What do Wall Street analysts say about VST?
18 analysts cover Vistra Corp. with a consensus rating of "Strong Buy." The average price target is $223.17, ranging from $99.00 to $320.00. This implies 39.3% upside from the current price.