What Is VST Fair Value?
Vistra Corp. (VST) fair value estimate using multiple valuation models, updated daily.
As of October 14, 2026, Vistra Corp. (VST) has a composite fair value estimate of $64.87 based on four valuation models: DCF (35% weight), Graham Number (25% weight), PEG (25% weight), and DDM (15% weight). The current market price is $162.36, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 60.0%.
Data as of October 14, 2026 (today)
Composite Fair Value
Overvalued4 of 4 models$64.87
vs. current price of $162.36(-60.0%)
How Is VST Fair Value Calculated?
Four independent models estimate what VST is worth. Each uses different inputs and assumptions. The composite blends them by weight.
VST Intrinsic Value
Forward-looking models based on future cash flows
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
35% weightEstimates how much cash the company will generate over the next 10 years, then calculates what all that future cash is worth in today's dollars. Includes a 15% safety cushion. Try the standalone DCF calculator →
$13.96
-91.4%Overvalued
Inputs used
DDM (Dividend Discount Model)
15% weightIf a company pays you dividends, this model asks: how much are all those future dividend payments worth today? Only works for stocks that pay dividends. Try the intrinsic value calculator →
$24.16
-85.1%Overvalued
Inputs used
VST Fair Value
Current fundamentals: earnings, assets, and growth rate
Graham Number (Value Investing)
25% weightCreated by legendary investor Benjamin Graham. It looks at two things: how much the company earns (EPS) and what its assets are worth (Book Value), then calculates the maximum price a careful investor should pay. Try the fair value calculator →
$43.91
-73.0%Overvalued
Inputs used
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth)
25% weightChecks if you're paying a fair price for the company's growth. A fast-growing company deserves a higher price than a slow one. This model finds the right price based on how fast earnings are growing.
$178.06
+9.7%Fair Value
Inputs used
What If You Change the Assumptions?
Drag the sliders to test different scenarios. Tap the ? buttons to learn what each input means.
Your DCF Fair Value
Current price $162.36 is 91.4% above this estimate
View 10-year cash flow projections
| Year | Projected FCF (Free Cash Flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $668.8M | $608.7M |
| Year 2 | $793.2M | $657.0M |
| Year 3 | $940.6M | $709.0M |
| Year 4 | $1.12B | $765.2M |
| Year 5 | $1.32B | $825.9M |
| Year 6 | $1.57B | $891.4M |
| Year 7 | $1.86B | $962.0M |
| Year 8 | $2.21B | $1.04B |
| Year 9 | $2.62B | $1.12B |
| Year 10 | $3.10B | $1.21B |
| Terminal Value | $43.09B | $16.80B |
What Are VST's Key Financial Metrics?
Earnings & Growth
Current Price
$162.36
EPS (TTM)
$5.93
Forward P/E
15.6
Profit Margin
11.6%
Cash & Balance Sheet
Free Cash Flow
37.1M
EBITDA
6.6B
Book Value
$8.95
Total Debt
20.5B
What Do Analysts Say About VST?
Low
$106.00
Average
$210.25
High
$305.00
Upside
+29.5%
VST Fair Value FAQ
What is the fair value of VST?
Based on our composite model (DCF 35%, Graham 25%, PEG 25%, DDM 15%), VST's estimated fair value is $64.87. The stock is currently trading at $162.36, which makes it overvalued by our analysis.
How is VST's fair value calculated?
We use four valuation methods: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Graham Number, PEG-based Fair Value, and Dividend Discount Model (for dividend-paying stocks). The composite score weights DCF at 35%, Graham and PEG at 25% each, and DDM at 15%. When a model can't be applied, its weight is redistributed proportionally.
Is VST overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our analysis, VST is overvalued. The current price of $162.36 is 60.0% above our estimated fair value of $64.87.
What do Wall Street analysts say about VST?
20 analysts cover Vistra Corp. with a consensus rating of "Strong Buy." The average price target is $210.25, ranging from $106.00 to $305.00. This implies 29.5% upside from the current price.